There is so much to know in this world!!!
How will you calculate the number of tanks that your enemy is producing? You have a set of serial number of the tanks which are numbered from 1 to n with m being the max and k samples? well you use the formula
Max tanks = m + missing numbers/k.
A derivative of this method was used by the allies during WW2 to estimate the German Panther production (and later during the Cold War to estimate Russian Tank productions). The method was not as simple as given above and is detailed as usual in the wiki article.
I have always believed that you can get amazing information from trivial data by proper analysis. Even absence of information can provide a huge amount of information!
You have a library card of a book on New Mexico from a University library containing the list of people who were issued the book. If you are a German spy what information do you get from it? Well you can come to know the location of the top secret Manhattan Project.
You would notice that the list contains names of physicists and engineers and you will also notice that most of these people have disappeared from the campus. Now you know that these “disappearing” people have most likely gone to New Mexico and you will concentrate your attention there to find out about the Manhattan Project.
😀 You come to know new things every second!
Ulam was among the first to refer to the technological singularity—and possibly the originator of the metaphor itself—in May 1958, while referring to a conversation with John von Neumann:
One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.
You are watching a test of a surface nuclear test. You tear up a piece of paper and dribble the confetti in the air as the shock waves hit. What are you doing?
You are trying to determine the yield of the nuclear explosion!
Fermi was present as an observer of the Trinity test on July 16, 1945. Engineer Jack Aeby saw Fermi at work:
||As the shock wave hit Base Camp, Aeby saw Enrico Fermi with a handful of torn paper. “He was dribbling it in the air. When the shock wave came it moved the confetti. He thought for a moment.”Fermi had just estimated the yield of the first nuclear explosion. It was in the ball park.
Fermi’s strips-of-paper estimate was ten kilotons of TNT; the actual yield was about 19 kilotons